Oscar Predictions 2011
Oscar Predictions 2010
It’s that time of the year again where Hollywood rewards what they consider to be the best movies in 2009 with golden statuettes. The Academy has shaken things up a little this year with 10 Best Picture nominees, but apart from a huge upset, it will be a showdown between Avatar and The Hurt Locker for top honours. This is also a year where the major categories are likely to be without surprises, but who knows? These are my predictions for the year, and like last year I will not be predicting the documentary and the short films since I have not seen most of them.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): James Cameron, Jon Landau
The Blind Side (2009): Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson
District 9 (2009): Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham
An Education (2009): Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey
The Hurt Locker (2008): Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier, Greg Shapiro
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Lawrence Bender
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Jonas Rivera
Up in the Air (2009/I): Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Prediction: Avatar
Ten nominees… five true contenders… and really only two films to consider (unless there are enough people who hate either Avatar and The Hurt Locker, and a third picture pips them both in a pure numbers game). Hurt Locker or Avatar? Personally I think aside from the visual spectacle, The Hurt Locker is truly the better made film. However, I also do not believe that the voters are going to ignore Avatar in the major categories since it’s truly a groundbreaking film. Since Kathryn Bigelow is almost a lock on the Best Director nod, Avatar should be getting Best Picture.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)
George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)
Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)
Should win: Jeff Bridges
Prediction: Jeff Bridges
Strangely, I don’t really think much of most of the performances that have been nominated in this category. All good, but really nothing much of a standout. I have not had a chance to see A Single Man yet (damn you distributors!) but my vote goes to Jeff Bridges, with Morgan Freeman as a very distant second.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)
Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)
Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)
Should win: Carey Mulligan
Prediction: Meryl Streep
Of all the major categories this year, I had the hardest time to decide who to go with for Best Actress. My personal favourite performance of the lot is Carey Mulligan’s truly impressive turn in An Education, and while I think she has the best chance of a dark horse upset win, the true battle is between Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. While it’s true that Bullockis getting more Oscar buzz, Streep has been nominated so many times in recent years and it’s only a matter of time before the voters would reward her with a third win. I have a feeling this will be her year, especially since Sandra Bullock has already won enough awards and voters may feel the Oscar may compensate Streep for her accumulated “losses”.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Matt Damon for Invictus (2009)
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger (2009/I)
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station (2009)
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones (2009)
Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (2009)
Should win: Christoph Waltz
Prediction: Christoph Waltz
No question at all – this will definitely go to Christoph Waltz and his super memorable performance in Inglourious Basterds. No one else comes close.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Penélope Cruz for Nine (2009)
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (2009)
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Should win: Mo’Nique
Prediction: Mo’Nique
Another lock – and I have to say Mo’Nique’s performance was truly impressive. Everyone else nominated in this category had (to me) rather weak performances compared to her – in fact I don’t understand why Penelope Cruz was even nominated. I mean, when did sex kitten song and dance number constitute as great acting?
Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)
James Cameron for Avatar (2009)
Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)
Should win: Kathryn Bigelow
Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow
I think all 5 directors deserved their nominations this year, but I lean towards Kathryn Bigelow on this one. This is particularly so because she has already won the most important precursor to the Oscars, the Directors Guild Award, and she will be the first woman to win the Oscar for this category. And The Hurt Locker featured masterful directorial work from her, even though James Cameron probably put in more effort overall (new technology, etc) for his work in Avatar.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger (2009/I): Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy
Should win: Inglourious Basterds
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
I think Inglourious Basterds had an excellent script, and apart from Christoph Waltz I don’t think the film has chance to win anything except cinematography and screenplay (one thing working against it is that Tarantino has already won in this category for Pulp Fiction previously). However, since I am going with Avatar to win Best Picture I think Hurt Locker will get this category as a “consolation”.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
District 9 (2009): Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell
An Education (2009): Nick Hornby
In the Loop (2009): Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner
Should win: Up in the Air
Prediction: Up in the Air
Again, Up in the Air has no real feasible chance of taking home any awards apart from this one, and it’s quite an interesting screenplay so I feel Reitman and Turner have a really good shot at this category.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): Mauro Fiore
Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009): Christian Berger
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009): Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker (2008): Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Robert Richardson
Prediction: Inglourious Basterds
Unless The White Ribbon is not going to win Best Foreign Film (I think it will) and thus get this as a consolation, I think the odds are pretty good for Inglourious Basterds to clinch the statuette in this category. It’s quite an even category though, so I won’t be surprised if my prediction is wrong.
Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): Stephen E. Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron
District 9 (2009): Julian Clarke
The Hurt Locker (2008): Bob Murawski, Chris Innis
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Sally Menke
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Joe Klotz
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
I think one of the reasons why The Hurt Locker worked so well cinematically is due to its tight editing, so I am going to predict a win for the film in this category.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): David Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith
Nine (2009): John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Young Victoria (2009): Patrice Vermette, Maggie Gray
Prediction: Avatar
I believe most of the technical awards are going to go to Avatar, deservedly so, except for the Sound awards which I think Hurt Locker may win out. Wonder if the Academy will start to include a “Best Achievement in 3D” award soon?
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Bright Star (2009): Janet Patterson
Coco avant Chanel (2009): Catherine Leterrier
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): Monique Prudhomme
Nine (2009): Colleen Atwood
The Young Victoria (2009): Sandy Powell
Prediction: Nine
I am just going to go for Nine because I think Bright Star and The Young Victoria will split votes for those who like period costumes, and Nine will then take top spot for its Victoria’s Secret (not too young though, hur hur) inspired costumes.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
Il divo (2008): Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano
Star Trek (2009): Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow
The Young Victoria (2009): John Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore
Prediction: The Young Victoria
I am guessing they won’t go for awarding a movie that uses makeup as blatantly as Star Trek, Vulcan ears and all, so The Young Victoria stands a better chance. Complete guesswork here though.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker (2008): Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Hans Zimmer
Up (2009): Michael Giacchino
Prediction: Up
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
Crazy Heart (2009): T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham("The Weary Kind")
Faubourg 36 (2008): Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas("Loin de Paname")
Nine (2009): Maury Yeston("Take It All")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Almost There")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Down in New Orleans")
Prediction: Crazy Heart
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson
The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano
Star Trek (2009): Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009): Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Does anyone really care about these technical awards?
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Wylie Stateman
Star Trek (2009): Mark P. Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin
Up (2009): Michael Silvers, Tom Myers
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
Avatar (2009): Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andy Jones
District 9 (2009): Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken
Star Trek (2009): Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton
Prediction: Avatar (of course)
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
Coraline (2009): Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog (2009): John Musker, Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells (2009): Tomm Moore
Up (2009): Pete Docter
Prediction: Up
Honestly apart from the first ten minutes Up is quite a run of the mill Pixar film, but we all know even run of the mill Pixar films will usually be able to pick up the award in this category. I really enjoyed the films in this category though (apart from The Secret of Kells which I had not watched).
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
Ajami (2009)(Israel)
Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009)(Germany)
El secreto de sus ojos (2009)(Argentina)
Un prophète (2009)(France)
La teta asustada (2009)(Peru)
Prediction: The White Ribbon (Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte)
