Similar to last year there doesn’t seem to be much room for upsets, and it does seem like a lock in many categories judging from the precursor awards. Without further ado, here are my predictions for this year’s delayed Oscars:

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Should win: Poor Things

Prediction: Oppenheimer

I would really prefer Poor Things or The Zone of Interest to win here, but it’s foolish to bet against Nolan and Oppenheimer this year, which hasn’t lost momentum at all throughout the awards season.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Should win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Prediction: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

It’s a commanding performance and I believe also rewarding Cillian Murphy’s body of work. While Paul Giamatti also puts in one of the most memorable performances of the year and could very much be a shock upset in the category, this one really feels like it’s in the bag

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Should win: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Prediction: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Emma Stone definitely has the showier role (and she certainly showed everything) in Poor Things, but Lily Gladstone was an excellent foil to the heavyweight actors in Killers of the Flower Moon, and her understated yet equally unforgettable performance is likely to win her the award this year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Should win: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

Again this would be an award that goes beyond just RDJ’s pretty good performance in Oppenheimer and extends to his larger body of work. This should be his year to win unless enough voters were amused by Ryan Gosling’s turn as Ken (which I really doubt).

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

The only major contender for the award apart from Da’Vine Joy Randolph would be Emily Blunt’s performance in Oppenheimer, but the awards season has leaned heavily towards Da’Vine Joy and it shouldn’t be too different for the Oscars.

Best Achievement in Directing

Should win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Prediction: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

This is a very stacked category and I wouldn’t be disappointed by any of the five nominated directors winning, but once again this seems like the year where the Academy would reward Christopher Nolan with the win.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Should win: Anatomy of a Fall

Prediction: Anatomy of a Fall

Some very deserving nominees here but Anatomy of a Fall remains one of the films that truly had staying power in my mind this year.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Should win: The Zone of Interest

Prediction: American Fiction

While I think The Zone of Interest is the most powerfully written film nominated in this category, I believe the voters will likely only reward the film with the Best International Feature award and give this one to American Fiction.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Prediction: Oppenheimer

This is yet another very stacked category and while my personal preference was for Rodrigo Prieto’s amazing cinematography in Killers, I think Hoyte van Hoytema’s work in Oppenheimer is similarly epic and is just slightly more in favour of winning.

Best Achievement in Editing

Should Win: Oppenheimer

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Another pretty stacked technical category but Oppenheimer is likely to walk away with the lion’s share of the technical awards.

Best Achievement in Production Design

Prediction: Poor Things

Unforgettable production design is definitely one of the reasons why Poor Things is one of my top films of the year.

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Prediction: Barbie

It’s either Barbie or Poor Things for this one and I am leaning more towards Barbie since costume design was such an integral part of the film’s storytelling.

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

Prediction: Maestro

I am guessing prostethics is going to help win this one for Maestro, although I certainly wouldn’t be mad if Poor Things won this category.

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score

Prediction: Oppenheimer

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

Prediction: “What Was I Made For?”, Barbie

I mean, it’s one of the most watched movies of the year and it’s by Billie Eilish…

Best Achievement in Sound

Prediction: Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest has stunning sound design but this is more likely to go Oppenheimer’s way.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects

Prediction: Godzilla Minus One

No real standouts but given how much of a surprise hit Godzilla Minus One was (and how much cheaper it cost to make) I believe the award will go to it.

Best Animated Feature Film

Prediction: Across the Spider-verse

Personally I wasn’t a huge fan of The Boy and the Heron but I reckon Across the Spider-verse would be the more popular vote here.

Best International Feature Film

Prediction: The Zone of Interest

Like last year, it would be hard to believe a Best Picture nominee would lose out here.

Best Documentary Feature

Prediction: 20 Days in Mariupol

Best Documentary Short Subject

Prediction: The ABCs of Book Banning

Best Animated Short Film

Prediction: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

Best Live Action Short Film

Prediction: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar